Sherman Robinson

The Indus Basin of Pakistan: the Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture (Directions in Development) Sherman Robinson

Recent times have been volatile in Pakistan's Indus Basin. In 2009, a weak summer monsoon created drought conditions throughout the country, exacerbating an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected more than 20 million people, laying devastation to their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US$10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector alone.

It is timely, if not critical, to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security in this region. The Indus Basin of Pakistan: The Impacts of Climate Risks on Water and Agriculture presents a greatly needed investigation into the extent to which the country is resilient to such shocks. The authors use several different modeling environments-among the best mathematical representations available-to describe the physical and economic responses to future exogenous climate risks, including hydrologic models, an agro-economic optimization model of the irrigation system, and a computable general-equilibrium model of Pakistan's economy. The integrated systems framework used in this study provides a broad and unique approach to estimating the hydrologic and crop impacts of climate change risks, the macro-economic and householdlevel responses, and an effective method for assessing a variety of adaptation investments and policies.

A better understanding of how the climate, water, and agriculture sectors are linked will help decision makers plan for future investments. The authors integrate the insights of multiple disciplines to benefit the assessment of future climate impacts in this region. The assessment approach developed in this volume will help to sharpen critical policies and interventions by the Pakistan government, especially, and will be a resource to professionals and students of water and agricultural sector management everywhere.